Bryan Caplan’s latest Substack post, “Reflections on United Arab Emirates,” Bet on It, October 21, 2024, is excellent. It’s all about his experience in the UAE and how it informs his thinking on open borders. His bottom line is hard to summarize but his points #2 and #3 come close.
Point #2:
The key ingredient of Emirati success: 88% of UAE’s population is foreign-born. That’s the highest share of any country on Earth. Why is the share so high? Because UAE is closer to open borders than any other country on Earth. They don’t just welcome petroleum engineers and architects. They welcome drivers, maids, janitors, waiters, and clerks. They don’t just welcome Europeans and East Asians. They welcome South Asians, Pacific Islanders, North Africans, and plenty of sub-Saharan Africans, too. I chatted with workers from both Zimbabwe and Sierra Leone. Yes, would-be migrant workers face a government approval process, so the border is not 100% open. But if you want to work hard to make a better life for yourself, your prospects of landing a work visa are decent no matter how humble your credentials.
Point #3:
Abu Dhabi and Dubai are living proof that Michael Clemens’ “Trillion Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk” is literal truth. Both cities look like Coruscant from Star Wars. They are absolute marvels: Gleaming cities of the future where humanity gathers to produce massive wealth. And without mass immigration, almost none of this could have been built! They need foreigners to help them run the petroleum industry. They need foreigners to build their skyscrapers, malls, and mansions. And they need foreigners to run their hotels, restaurants, and stores.
The article, not the title of the article, is literal truth. There aren’t actually trillion dollar bills, except in Zimbabwe. But the article by Clemens argues, successfully in my view, that allowing much more immigration would create trillions of dollars of economic output annually.
The whole piece is well worth reading. It’s Bryan Caplan at his best. It’s informed, filled with data, analytically solid, and completely lacking in social desirability bias.
One new thing I learned: “Homosexuality is illegal… but no one has been arrested for it since 2015.” Think about that. You couldn’t have said that in Britain in, say, 1960. (Cue Alan Turing.) You couldn’t have said in the United States in, say, 1975. (Think about Stonewall.) So that one fact is very striking.
Bryan’s post has received more comments than his usual Substack post. Many of them are informed.
The main thing I learned from the comments, which was missing from Bryan’s post, is that the UAE doesn’t have open borders; it has a guest worker program. Bryan wouldn’t deny this; it’s just that he didn’t mention the term “guest worker.”
Here’s one thing I’m wondering about. One commenter, “Bacon Commander,” said, “If you lose your job, you go home.” Is that literally true? Wouldn’t you be given, say, 2 months, to find another job?
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